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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the other's positions."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."