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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.